It has been noted over and over that some of the best minds in the energy business have been wrong about every change in the price of crude. Goldman Sachs has come in for particular criticism for predicting that oil was headed to $200 a barrel before it crashed and $20 a barrel right before it rose again
But take heart professional and amateur oil forecasters alike. It turns out a lot of people are wrong a lot of the time.
An interesting presentation from Industry week looks at the worst tech predictions of all time. They are worth a look.
At least we can all take some comfort in the fact that we are not TV weathermen who have to predict the future at 5, 6 & 10 p.m. Nate Silver is a statistician who heads ESPN’s FifeThirtyEight Blog. Click the picture to see is his take on why the local weatherman is wrong so much of the time.